Extreme value analysis of Munich air pollution data

We present three different approaches to modelling extreme values of daily air pollution data. We fitted a generalized extreme value distribution to the monthly maxima of daily concentration measures. For the exceedances of a high threshold depending on the data, the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution were estimated. Accounting for autocorrelation, clusters of exceedances were used. To obtain information about the relationship of the exceedance of the air quality standard and possible predictors we applied logistic regression. Results and their interpretation are given for daily average concentrations of ozone and nitrogen dioxide at two monitoring sites within the city of Munich.     

Impact of a flood disaster on sediment toxicity in a major river system--the Elbe flood 2002 as a case study

The ecotoxicological implications of a flooding disaster were investigated with the exceptional Elbe flood in August 2002 as an example. Sediment samples were taken shortly after the flood at 37 sites. For toxicity assessment the midge Chironomus riparius (Insecta) and the mudsnail Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Gastropoda) were exposed to the sediment samples for 28 days. For a subset of 19 sampling sites, the contamination level and the biological response of both species were also recorded before the flood in 2000. The direct comparison of biological responses at identical sites revealed significant differences for samples taken before and immediately after the flood. After flood sediments of the river Elbe caused both higher emergence rates in the midge and higher numbers of embryos in the mudsnail. Contrary to expectations the toxicity of the sediments decreased after the flood, probably because of a dilution of toxic substances along the river Elbe and a reduction in bioavailability of pollutants as a result of increasing TOC values after the flood.     

Simulated distributions of Baltic Sea-ice in warming climate and consequences for the winter habitat of the Baltic ringed seal

Sea-ice in the Baltic Sea in present and future climates is investigated. The Rossby Centre Regional Atmosphere-Ocean model was used to perform a set of 30-year-long time slice experiments. For each of the two driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, one control run (1961-1990) and two scenario runs (2071-2100) based upon the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios were conducted. The future sea-ice volume in the Baltic Sea is reduced by 83% on average. The Bothnian Sea, large areas of the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga, and the outer parts of the southwestern archipelago of Finland will become ice-free in the mean. The presented scenarios are used to study the impact of climate change on the Baltic ringed seal (Phoca hispida botnica). Climate change seems to be a major threat to all southern populations. The only fairly good winter sea-ice habitat is found to be confined to the Bay of Bothnia.     

Computation of the interfacial area for two-fluid porous medium systems

We develop a method to compute interfacial areas from three-dimensional digital representations of multiphase systems. We approximate the interfaces with the isosurface generated by the standard marching-cube algorithm from the discrete phase distribution. We apply this approach to two-fluid pore-scale simulations by (1) simulating a random packing of spheres that obeys the grain-size distribution and porosity of an experimental porous medium system, and (2) using a previously developed pore-morphology-based model in order to predict the phase distribution for a water-wet porous medium that undergoes primary drainage. The predicted primary drainage curve and interfacial areas are in good agreement with the experimental values reported in the literature, where interfacial areas were measured using interfacial tracers. The energy dissipation during Haines jumps is significant: thus, the mechanical work done on the system is not completely converted into surface energy, and interfacial areas may not be deduced from the primary drainage curve.     

Bioaccumulation of 14C-17alpha-ethinylestradiol by the aquatic oligochaete Lumbriculus variegatus in spiked artificial sediment

A bioaccumulation study was performed with the endobenthic freshwater oligochaete Lumbriculus variegatus MULLER exposed to the radiolabelled synthetic steroid 17alpha-ethinylestradiol (14C-EE2) in a spiked artificial sediment. Concentration of total radioactivity increased constantly and almost linearly during 35 days of exposure. The accumulation factor normalised to worm lipid content and sediment TOC (AFlipid/OC) was 75 at the end of the uptake period, but a steady state was not reached. Uptake kinetics were calculated fitting the measured AFs to a kinetic rate equation for constant uptake from sediment using iterative non-linear regression analysis. After 10 days of elimination in contaminant-free sediment 50% of the accumulated total radioactivity was excreted by the worms. Extracts from L. variegatus sampled at the end of the uptake phase were analysed by thin layer chromatography (TLC). The results showed that 6% of the total radioactivity incorporated by the worms was 14C-EE2. After treatment of extracts with beta-glucuronidase the amount of 14C-EE2 increased to 84%. These results suggest that L. variegatus has the potency to accumulate high amounts of conjugated EE2. Hence, a transfer of EE2 to benthivores and subsequent secondary poisoning of predators might be possible.     

The contribution from shipping emissions to air quality and acid deposition in Europe

A global three-dimensional Lagrangian chemistry-transport model STOCHEM is used to describe the European regional acid deposition and ozone air quality impacts along the Atlantic Ocean seaboard of Europe, from the SO2, NOx, VOCs and CO emissions from international shipping under conditions appropriate to the year 2000. Model-derived total sulfur deposition from international shipping reaches over 200 mg S m(-2) yr(-1) over the southwestern approaches to the British Isles and Brittany. The contribution from international shipping to surface ozone concentrations during the summertime, peaks at about 6 ppb over Ireland, Brittany and Portugal. Shipping emissions act as an external influence on acid deposition and ozone air quality within Europe and may require control actions in the future if strict deposition and air quality targets are to be met.     

Modellierung von Stoffausbreitungen

Die Modellierung des Ausbreitungsverhaltens von Stoffen unterschiedlicher Eigenschaften in der Umwelt stellt eine Herausforderung dar, da die zugrundeliegenden physikalischen Transport-, chemischen Reaktions- und biologischen An- oder Abreicherungsprozesse zeitlich variabel in r?umlich heterogen strukturierten Umweltsystemen wirken. Durch geschickt gew?hlte Vereinfachungen, Abgrenzungen und Mittelungen sind bemerkenswerte Erfolge bis hin zur bedingt-prognostischen Simulation ausgew?hlter Stoffe und Stoffgruppen erzielt worden. Forschungsbedarf besteht vor allem in der Modellierung der kleinr?umigen, medienübergreifenden Ausbreitung von Stoffen in komplexen ?kosystemaren Zusammenh?ngen, einschlie?lich der Austausch- und Transfervorg?nge und der chemisch-biologischen Transformationen. Bericht vom 32. Tutzing-Symposium der DECHEMA e.V., 7. bis 10. M?rz 1994     

Body condition and the grouping behavior of brood-caring female common eiders (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Somateria mollissima</Emphasis>)

Both theoretical and empirical work has shown that group size increases with increasing ecological constraints on solitary breeding. Ecological constraints refer to extrinsic factors such as availability of breeding sites, food or mates. Common eider (Somateria mollissima) females pool their broods and share brood-rearing duties, or rear broods alone. Females are often in poor condition at hatching, as incubation is accomplished without feeding, and variation in body condition is largely environmentally induced and thus unpredictable. We found that the intensity of and duration of parental care that females provide is positively correlated with their body condition at hatching. This suggests that body condition is an ecological constraint on successful solitary breeding. We further observed that group productivity in common eider broods is a decelerating function of the number of tending females. As predicted, females in poorer condition (i.e., facing stronger ecological constraints) were found in larger groups. This result is straightforward if solitary tenders can enter any group at no cost. However, if entry is group-controlled, stable groups of non-relatives are predicted not to occur when per capita reproduction declines with group size. The N-person staying incentive model permits groups to form under these conditions, because reproduction is unevenly divided between dominants and subordinates in the group. We discuss the plausibility of these alternative models of group size for understanding the grouping behavior of brood-caring female common eiders.Communicated by M. Webster     

Analysis of lead in soils adjacent to an interstate highway in Tampa,Florida

In order to assess the amount and distribution of lead pollution in soils adjacent to a major interstate highway serving the city of Tampa, Florida, a total of 224 samples were collected from 32 transects perpendicular to the roadway. The lead content was measured using atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The highest levels of lead were found at distances of 81, 243, and 729 cm from the road. The results show that there is a weak negative correlation between soil lead and the distance from the roadside, as well as with traffic density. The weakness of the relationship is a result of confounding variables such as turbulence and other microclimatic factors, downslope movement of soils overtime, and human action such as construction and highway landscaping. Nevertheless, over one-third of the samples collected in the study area contain more than 500 g g^–1 lead, levels considered to be hazardous by the United States Centers for Disease Control and the Environmental Protection Agency.